Sunday, October 21, 2012

Steven 2012-13 NBA Preview


Western Conference

Northwest

Oklahoma City Thunder 60-22
They have lost nothing from the core of the team last year and didn’t age at all like other teams.  The core is arguably one of the best in the league with Durant, Westbrook, Harden, and Ibaka and will again dominate games from start to finish. With some maturity and addition of some defensive minded bigs (Collison, Aldrich and Thabeet) the Thunder are poised to make another big run through the playoffs and back to the NBA championship series.

Utah Jazz 50-32
The Jazz may be the deepest team in the league, especially in the front court with Favors, Jefferson, Millsap, Kanter, Williams, and Evans. They will be able to stay in games because of their bench play against opponent’s weaker second units. They need to make a few moves with some bigs to bring in a super-star or elite point guard that can help them over the hump of a packed Western Conference.

Portland Trail Blazers 48-34
Speed, youth and small ball will be the Blazers scheme all year unless Leonard can develop quickly and give the Blazers a center they haven’t had since Walton. Batum and Lillard’s production and Aldridges health will be the key factors to the Blazers success. In arguably the deepest division in the league, the Blazers will have a lot of tough games to overcome.

Denver Nuggets 41-41
Karl ball is fun to watch and the players enjoy his style, but playing in the toughest division in the league this year is going to be a hard task for the Nuggets. Denver has talent to run and gun, but the half-court offense is a rough situation in the Rockies. Denver will struggle in the stack division and miss out on the playoffs this year.

Minnesota Timberwolves 38-44
Starting the year without your best two players in something no team wants, but sadly the Timberwolves are stuck with role players and no star until Love and Rubio return. A slow start will hinder the T-wolves from the playoffs this year.

Pacific

LA Lakers 60-22
An unbelievable starting lineup with guaranteed future Hall of Famers, they should be able to win a ton of games and battle for the top seed in the West. They must figure out a way to overcome some of the biggest egos (Kobe, Dwight, World Peace and Jamison) in the league. If the stars can align just right and they understand Kobe is still the King in LA, they have the ability to make a great run at a title this year and for a couple of years if they remain healthy.

LA Clippers 54-28
The biggest factor for the Clippers this year is their health and defense. With Billups back and the addition of Grant Hill the leadership is dominating in the back court and off the bench. If the young guys (Griffin and Jordan) can play some defense and the new bench (Crawford, Odom, Green, Hill and Barnes) can score and play consistently the Clippers will make a big run in the playoffs this year.

Golden State Warriors 45-37
The Warriors youth and run and gun style will be entertaining as always, but the inexperience and health problems of their stars will keep them just outside the playoffs again in the loaded Western Conference.

Sacramento Kings 30-52
The Kings have some unbelievable talent on their roster, but a ton of one-on-one players usually don’t work together very well. With one of the biggest drama queens (Cousins) in the league and a roster of gaurds with no leadership, the Kings will struggle and should certainly consider the revamp/start over option that the new Seattle stadium contract may provide.

Phoenix Suns 28-54
In a year of “rebuilding” the Suns will struggle and look for players of the future or trades that could help bring super-star talent back to the desert. The Suns will have a rough season, with very few bright moments.

Southwest

San Antonio Spurs 56-26
Even with their big 3 aging for the past few years, Popovich (one of the best coaches all time) knows how to coach the young guys to win a lot of games and remain under the radar until the playoffs come around. Popovich will again coach them to a high seed in the playoffs and remain a tough out.

Dallas Mavericks 53-29
With the acquisitions of Brand and Kaman the Mavericks front court is better than it has been in years, but the age and health could be a factor.  The Mavs did go out and get youth in the back court (Collison and Mayo) that can run with the young, athletic gaurds that are dominating the league. Carlisle will need to get the team back to the defensive mentality they had in the 2010-2011 season that helped them to the franchise’s first title.

Memphis Grizzlies 46-36
The Grizzlies will again rely solely on the front court talents of Gay, Randolph and Gasol to carry them through the season and squeak into the playoffs again. With no major changes in the off season the Grizzlies will have a tough time competing with some of the newer “super teams” that the league is gaining. Look for the Grizzlies to be a tough opponent that no one wants to be matched up against.

NO Hornets 35-47
Young talent is something that the Hornets have plenty of. Unproven veterans and leadership is something they nowhere on the roster. If their future stud, Davis can adapt quickly to the NBA game they may be a team to watch for in the future, just not this year.

Houston Rockets 27-55
Jeremy Lin is the new star in Houston, problem is he only has 64 games of experience and hasn’t been able to be a dominant player for entire NBA season. Kevin Martin will always put up a lot of points, but the rest of the Rockets are unproven.

Eastern Conference

Southeast

Miami Heat 68-14
Adding one of the best 3-point shooters of all time in Ray Allen, any team could be a contender. Adding him to the defending NBA Champions and you should be looking at a repeat. Miami and LeBron have the talent and skills to make a dynasty in South Beach and win a couple titles, so they can try and live up to the debacle that was “The Decision.” The Heat will be smoking hot this season and make a run at history with one of the best regular season records in league history.

Washington Wizards 40-42
With John Wall missing the first 2 months of the season the Wizards are going to have a difficult challenge to win games early. Nene will produce a quality season on offense and defense and with the rookie stud Bradley Beal they have an outside threat that will greatly improve their starting line-up. If the Wizards can win a couple games in the first 2 months, Wall will come back and carry the team to a decent second half of the season and take the Wizards back to the playoffs in a weak East.

Atlanta Hawks 32-50
The loss of Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams is going to be a huge blow to the Hawks offense and perimeter defense. Horford and Smith now have the roles of leading the team to the promised land, but neither have had the experience of leading a team. Harris and Korver have been brought in to replace Johnson, but neither have the consistent score ability that Johnson gave the team.

Orlando Magic 22-60
Even though the Magic were able to end the Howard drama that plagued them for the past two years, the Magic got nothing in return. Afflalo and Harrington are not pieces that the Magic can build a team around. This season is going to be a worse drop off, compared to the 96-97 season the year after Shaq left the team, because Afflalo and Harrington aren’t as good now as Hardaway and Hill were then. The Magic will be struggling this season and for years to come.

Charlotte Bobcats 18-64
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be the only shining moment on this team, being asked to be the star as a rookie. He has the potential and work ethic to be a super star in the league, but that day will not come until after he leaves the Bobcats and joins a team with players that can help him out. Bringing Ramon Sessions in from the Lakers this off-season will again delay the development of Kemba Walker and may lead to more interesting player moves during and after the season.

Atlantic

Boston Celtics 57-25
Boston has quietly put together a deep bench this off-season including Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa, Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo. With Jeff Green back from injury the Celtics are looking to remain near the top of the Eastern Conference even with the loss of one of the best shooters in league history. Boston will again manage playing time for Garnett and Pierce to keep them healthy down the stretch and Rondo will carry the team with his vast array of talent as part of the Big 3 in Boston.

Brooklyn Nets 48-34
The Nets didn’t quite get the All-star line-up they hoped for this off-season losing out to the Lakers in the Howard race. But they were able put together a quality squad to help keep super star, Deron Williams around and hopefully help him share the load of the team. Johnson’s offense is a huge addition and if Wallace can get back to the skill he showed as the star of the Bobcats years ago, the Nets could be able to make some noise in the Eastern playoffs.

NY Knicks 41-41
The Knicks did a great job at gaining experience in the back court with the acquisitions of Kidd and Felton, but can they help turn the team into the Knicks it once was? Any team that has Carmelo and Stoudemire is going to be extremely explosive offensively, but has to understand that neither one are much help on the defensive end. Kidd won’t contribute much defensively off the bench either because of age, competing in a young guard league. The Knicks will be entertaining, but not much else.

Philadelphia 76ers 37-45
Jrue Holiday is going to have a break out year and become a solid guard for the Sixers. Andrew Bynum is a huge upgrade for the Sixers front court, but Bynum will struggle with his attitude and the pressure of being a franchise player. Turner could be the X-factor for the Sixers if he can improve is aggressiveness on the offensive end and his outside shooting.

Toronto Raptors 28-54
The Raptors are relying heavily on the big foreign front court of Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas, neither of which will be All-Star performers. They greatly improved the defense of their back court, picking up Kyle Lowry and Landry Fields, which should help with the lack of defense DeRozen provides. DeRozen may have a break out year playing for a new contract, but I doubt that it will propel the Raptors very far.

Central

Indiana Pacers 56-26
The Pacers play good team defense and are effective in their half court helping them become the San Antonio Spurs of the East, slow and difficult to watch on a nightly basis, but highly productive in the standings. As long as Granger and Hibbert can do the same as last year, Hill and West can play their roles and George can live up to the potential and Pippen comparisons, the Pacers will be a force to be recon with this season.

Chicago Bulls 46-36
The season for the Bulls is all determined on “The Return” of Derrick Rose. They will again be able to win games and continue to play solid team ball, led by Luol Deng, much the same as they did last year when Rose was out for a good chunk of last season because of multiple minor injuries. The Bulls need Boozer and Hamilton to produce a lot more this season before and after Rose returns to the team. They are the keys to the Bulls making the playoffs and competing with the elite teams of the league.

Cleveland Cavaliers 35-47
There will be no sophomore slump for the dynamic, young star Kyrie Irving, who will have another fabulous season for the Cavs. The fourth overall pick in this summer’s draft, Dion Waiters will be a quality, quick producer with his versatility to play multiple positions. The Cavs may have a good back court this season, but they won’t have much or any real help from the big guys on the roster.

Detroit Pistons 31-51
Greg Monroe could definitely be the future for the Pistons and will continue his improvement this season. Andre Drummond will become another Darko Milicic, only faster because of available playing time, in Detroit and be another disappointing top 10 pick for the Pistons. Tayshaun’s minutes and skills will diminish this season and the Pistons will start to play a lot of young players and suffer another rough year to gain experience for the future.

Milwaukee Bucks 25-57
In a division that is stacked at both guard positions, the Bucks may have one of the best scoring combinations with Ellis and Jennings. The Bucks added size this year, picking up Dalembert, Hansen and Przybilla, but don’t expect those three to turn the franchise around at their positions. The Bucks have two talented gaurds that don’t have much else to work with on the roster.

Eastern Conference Playoffs
1.       Miami Heat 68-14 vs. 8. Philadelphia 76ers 37-45 (4-0 Heat)
2.       Boston Celtics 57-25 vs. 7. Washington Wizards 40-42 (4-2 Celtics)
3.       Indiana Pacers 56-26 vs. 6. NY Knicks 41-41 (4-3 Pacers)
4.       Brooklyn Nets 48-34 vs. 5. Chicago Bulls 46-36 (4-2 Bulls)

Eastern Conference Semi-Finals
1.       Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls (4-2 Heat)
2.       Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers (4-3 Pacers)

Eastern Conference Finals
1.       Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers (4-0 Heat)

Western Conference Playoffs
1.       OKC Thunder 60-22 vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies 46-36 (4-1 OKC)
2.       LA Lakers 60-22 vs. 7. Portland Trail Blazers 48-34 (4-0 LA)
3.       San Antonio Spurs 56-26 vs. 6. Utah Jazz 50-32 (4-3 Spurs)
4.       LA Clippers 54-28 vs. 5. Dallas Mavericks 53-29 (4-2 Clippers)

Western Conference Semi-Finals
1.       OKC Thunder vs. LA Clippers (4-1 OKC)
2.       LA Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs (4-1 LA)

Western Conference Finals
1.       OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers (4-3 LA)
  
NBA Finals
Miami Heat vs. LA Lakers (4-3 Miami)

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